Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+1.1est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Steelersedge mapBengals
- -0.011EPA / play+0.118
- 42.8%Success rate50.4%
- -0.069EPA / dropback+0.235
- +0.097EPA / rush-0.133
- 8.9%Explosive rate8.1%
- -2.16CPOE+9.08
- 36.7%Third-down rate53.9%
- 51.4%Red-zone TD rate66.5%
- 1.87Points / drive2.60
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 41–16 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CIN are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.57
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.09