Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+0.8est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Steelersedge mapBengals
- -0.251EPA / play+0.001
- 33.8%Success rate47.6%
- -0.251EPA / dropback-0.030
- -0.252EPA / rush+0.050
- 6.2%Explosive rate11.1%
- +1.23CPOE+6.35
- 25.0%Third-down rate57.1%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate40.0%
- 1.00Points / drive2.11
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. CIN are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.81
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+0.85