Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+0.1est.
LV perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Seahawksedge mapRaiders
- -0.042EPA / play+0.019
- 42.4%Success rate43.1%
- +0.103EPA / dropback+0.168
- -0.225EPA / rush-0.252
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.6%
- +1.94CPOE-1.41
- 38.2%Third-down rate40.6%
- 58.1%Red-zone TD rate55.6%
- 1.93Points / drive2.49
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 45.8 points. LV are 8-4 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.14
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.08