2026 · Week 10 · Division
Scheduled
MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf
Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+4.2est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Commandersedge mapGiants
- +0.073EPA / play+0.363
- 43.5%Success rate59.1%
- +0.160EPA / dropback+0.667
- -0.046EPA / rush+0.059
- 4.3%Explosive rate6.1%
- -3.44CPOE+13.38
- 33.3%Third-down rate90.0%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate80.0%
- 1.99Points / drive3.97
- 0.0%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. NYG are 28-24-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.96
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.17