2026 · Week 10 · Division
Scheduled
MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf
Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+4.7est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Commandersedge mapGiants
- -0.008EPA / play+0.027
- 41.3%Success rate42.9%
- +0.069EPA / dropback+0.118
- -0.148EPA / rush-0.102
- 6.8%Explosive rate7.8%
- +3.27CPOE-2.00
- 31.3%Third-down rate44.9%
- 64.1%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
- 1.86Points / drive2.15
- 0.5%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40.1 points. NYG are 29-24-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.49
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.71