Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+3.2est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Coltsedge mapTexans
- -0.063EPA / play+0.031
- 42.5%Success rate43.4%
- -0.130EPA / dropback+0.138
- +0.030EPA / rush-0.167
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.4%
- -4.20CPOE+2.27
- 40.1%Third-down rate37.8%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate60.4%
- 1.93Points / drive2.19
- 2.6%Turnover rate0.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. HOU are 19-28-3 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.00
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.22