Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+5.7est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Coltsedge mapTexans
- -0.225EPA / play+0.071
- 42.6%Success rate48.1%
- -0.409EPA / dropback+0.098
- +0.116EPA / rush+0.030
- 13.0%Explosive rate8.9%
- -5.06CPOE+3.16
- 30.0%Third-down rate43.8%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate80.0%
- 1.99Points / drive2.80
- 3.7%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. HOU are 19-27-3 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.49
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.71