Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+4.5est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Raidersedge mapBroncos
- +0.019EPA / play-0.040
- 43.1%Success rate37.9%
- +0.168EPA / dropback-0.004
- -0.252EPA / rush-0.093
- 7.6%Explosive rate6.4%
- -1.41CPOE-2.61
- 40.6%Third-down rate31.4%
- 55.6%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
- 2.49Points / drive1.75
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.69
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.47