Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-10.9est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Raidersedge mapBroncos
- -0.029EPA / play-0.378
- 43.1%Success rate36.0%
- +0.027EPA / dropback-0.442
- -0.083EPA / rush-0.228
- 7.7%Explosive rate2.0%
- +0.71CPOE-7.78
- 41.7%Third-down rate16.7%
- 75.0%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 2.44Points / drive0.83
- 3.1%Turnover rate4.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-13.69
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-10.91