Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+13.3est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Dolphinsedge mapBills
- -0.242EPA / play+0.300
- 34.5%Success rate41.8%
- -0.183EPA / dropback+0.597
- -0.399EPA / rush-0.263
- 10.9%Explosive rate14.5%
- -8.85CPOE+8.14
- 20.0%Third-down rate33.3%
- 33.3%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 1.18Points / drive3.07
- 3.6%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+11.13
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+13.35