Closing spread
—
Total
—
Model margin
+7.1est.
SF perspective
Push chance
—
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Vikingsedge map49ers
- +0.055EPA / play+0.190
- 37.7%Success rate56.9%
- +0.208EPA / dropback+0.227
- -0.125EPA / rush+0.142
- 3.3%Explosive rate7.7%
- -4.89CPOE+0.77
- 57.1%Third-down rate58.3%
- 83.3%Red-zone TD rate75.0%
- 2.90Points / drive2.98
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 8–4 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.3 points. SF are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.88
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.10