Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+2.4est.
SF perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Vikingsedge map49ers
- -0.099EPA / play+0.153
- 36.7%Success rate52.5%
- -0.029EPA / dropback+0.265
- -0.195EPA / rush-0.001
- 7.6%Explosive rate10.8%
- +0.39CPOE+4.63
- 38.6%Third-down rate51.0%
- 46.3%Red-zone TD rate88.6%
- 1.65Points / drive2.81
- 1.1%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 8–4 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.3 points. SF are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.14
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.36