Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+4.3est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Saintsedge mapBears
- -0.031EPA / play+0.052
- 41.9%Success rate47.0%
- +0.041EPA / dropback+0.154
- -0.169EPA / rush-0.082
- 6.1%Explosive rate9.6%
- +0.08CPOE+5.30
- 43.6%Third-down rate44.6%
- 76.7%Red-zone TD rate51.9%
- 2.19Points / drive2.27
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 11–6 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. CHI are 7-9-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.52
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.30