Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+7.0est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Saintsedge mapBears
- +0.030EPA / play+0.361
- 44.3%Success rate53.3%
- +0.067EPA / dropback+0.551
- -0.075EPA / rush+0.143
- 9.1%Explosive rate12.0%
- -1.21CPOE+16.58
- 47.1%Third-down rate71.4%
- 80.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 2.20Points / drive4.19
- 3.4%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 11–6 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. CHI are 7-9-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.21
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+6.98