Closing spread
—
Total
—
Model margin
+0.7est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
—
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Steelersedge mapEagles
- -0.029EPA / play-0.086
- 42.3%Success rate37.3%
- -0.063EPA / dropback-0.055
- +0.043EPA / rush-0.144
- 8.1%Explosive rate4.6%
- -1.45CPOE-3.23
- 36.8%Third-down rate36.6%
- 50.4%Red-zone TD rate77.8%
- 1.79Points / drive1.84
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 5–3 since 1999
PHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.3 points. PHI are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.11
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+0.67