Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-0.5est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Steelersedge mapEagles
- -0.251EPA / play+0.027
- 33.8%Success rate34.0%
- -0.251EPA / dropback+0.136
- -0.252EPA / rush-0.167
- 6.2%Explosive rate9.4%
- +1.23CPOE+0.87
- 25.0%Third-down rate42.9%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate75.0%
- 1.00Points / drive1.99
- 1.5%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 5–3 since 1999
PHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.3 points. PHI are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.22
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-0.45