Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+1.0est.
DET perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Buccaneersedge mapLions
- -0.091EPA / play+0.119
- 41.1%Success rate49.6%
- -0.151EPA / dropback+0.264
- -0.023EPA / rush-0.083
- 8.5%Explosive rate11.1%
- -3.59CPOE+1.28
- 39.8%Third-down rate39.5%
- 53.6%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
- 1.80Points / drive2.76
- 2.3%Turnover rate0.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 11–10 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. DET are 14-7 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.65
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.01