Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+2.0est.
DET perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Buccaneersedge mapLions
- -0.081EPA / play-0.027
- 51.8%Success rate45.5%
- -0.168EPA / dropback+0.012
- +0.118EPA / rush-0.072
- 5.4%Explosive rate10.4%
- +14.02CPOE-2.91
- 50.0%Third-down rate38.5%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate80.0%
- 1.44Points / drive2.20
- 7.1%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 11–10 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. DET are 14-7 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.33
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.99