Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+3.9est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Titansedge mapCowboys
- -0.083EPA / play+0.120
- 41.6%Success rate47.6%
- -0.067EPA / dropback+0.201
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.034
- 7.0%Explosive rate6.1%
- -0.46CPOE+0.48
- 35.8%Third-down rate47.2%
- 52.6%Red-zone TD rate73.2%
- 1.55Points / drive2.88
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43.3 points. DAL are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.71
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.93