Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+10.1est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Falconsedge mapVikings
- -0.358EPA / play+0.055
- 36.7%Success rate37.7%
- -0.638EPA / dropback+0.208
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.125
- 10.0%Explosive rate3.3%
- -10.42CPOE-4.89
- 16.7%Third-down rate57.1%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate83.3%
- 0.46Points / drive2.90
- 3.3%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. MIN are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+8.42
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+10.08