Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+3.7est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Falconsedge mapVikings
- -0.038EPA / play-0.099
- 44.5%Success rate36.7%
- -0.070EPA / dropback-0.029
- +0.001EPA / rush-0.195
- 9.0%Explosive rate7.6%
- -4.68CPOE+0.39
- 39.3%Third-down rate38.6%
- 61.9%Red-zone TD rate46.3%
- 1.93Points / drive1.65
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. MIN are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.05
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+3.71