Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-14.9est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Ravensedge mapTexans
- +0.209EPA / play+0.071
- 46.9%Success rate48.1%
- +0.316EPA / dropback+0.098
- +0.101EPA / rush+0.030
- 10.9%Explosive rate8.9%
- +4.80CPOE+3.16
- 37.5%Third-down rate43.8%
- 83.3%Red-zone TD rate80.0%
- 3.13Points / drive2.80
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 13–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43.7 points. HOU are 6-10 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-17.40
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-14.94