Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+2.0est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Ravensedge mapTexans
- +0.071EPA / play+0.031
- 46.2%Success rate43.4%
- +0.186EPA / dropback+0.138
- -0.080EPA / rush-0.167
- 9.2%Explosive rate8.4%
- +4.76CPOE+2.27
- 41.4%Third-down rate37.8%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate60.4%
- 2.06Points / drive2.19
- 1.1%Turnover rate0.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 13–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43.7 points. HOU are 6-10 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.42
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+2.04