2026 · Week 12 · Division
Scheduled
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass
Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+2.5est.
TB perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Panthersedge mapBuccaneers
- +0.019EPA / play-0.081
- 41.9%Success rate40.9%
- +0.072EPA / dropback-0.130
- -0.084EPA / rush-0.011
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.4%
- -0.58CPOE-2.76
- 39.3%Third-down rate40.9%
- 67.3%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 2.15Points / drive1.86
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–24 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. TB are 22-27 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.27
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.49