2026 · Week 12 · Division
Scheduled
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass
Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+6.8est.
TB perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Panthersedge mapBuccaneers
- +0.130EPA / play-0.081
- 47.1%Success rate51.8%
- +0.242EPA / dropback-0.168
- -0.106EPA / rush+0.118
- 11.8%Explosive rate5.4%
- +4.17CPOE+14.02
- 44.4%Third-down rate50.0%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 2.90Points / drive1.44
- 2.9%Turnover rate7.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. TB are 21-27 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.63
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.85