Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+1.9est.
DET perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Bearsedge mapLions
- +0.052EPA / play+0.144
- 47.0%Success rate49.9%
- +0.154EPA / dropback+0.309
- -0.082EPA / rush-0.108
- 9.6%Explosive rate10.3%
- +5.30CPOE+1.18
- 44.6%Third-down rate39.7%
- 51.9%Red-zone TD rate70.4%
- 2.27Points / drive2.92
- 2.1%Turnover rate0.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.31
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.91