Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-6.3est.
DET perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Bearsedge mapLions
- +0.361EPA / play-0.027
- 53.3%Success rate45.5%
- +0.551EPA / dropback+0.012
- +0.143EPA / rush-0.072
- 12.0%Explosive rate10.4%
- +16.58CPOE-2.91
- 71.4%Third-down rate38.5%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate80.0%
- 4.19Points / drive2.20
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-8.46
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-6.25