Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+2.3est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Broncosedge mapSteelers
- -0.040EPA / play-0.029
- 37.9%Success rate42.3%
- -0.004EPA / dropback-0.063
- -0.093EPA / rush+0.043
- 6.4%Explosive rate8.1%
- -2.61CPOE-1.45
- 31.4%Third-down rate36.8%
- 71.1%Red-zone TD rate50.4%
- 1.75Points / drive1.79
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 7–6 since 1999
PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45 points. PIT are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.03
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.25