Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-0.5est.
LA perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Packersedge mapRams
- -0.181EPA / play-0.226
- 38.2%Success rate43.3%
- -0.059EPA / dropback-0.270
- -0.438EPA / rush-0.171
- 13.2%Explosive rate6.7%
- -9.65CPOE-4.74
- 25.0%Third-down rate22.2%
- 33.3%Red-zone TD rate33.3%
- 1.91Points / drive0.69
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 11–4 since 1999
GB have won 5 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. LA are 3-12 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.70
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.48