Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+3.5est.
LA perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Packersedge mapRams
- +0.010EPA / play+0.059
- 40.0%Success rate49.0%
- +0.142EPA / dropback+0.117
- -0.266EPA / rush-0.042
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.1%
- -1.28CPOE+1.33
- 36.3%Third-down rate46.2%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
- 1.96Points / drive2.15
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 11–4 since 1999
GB have won 5 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. LA are 3-12 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.28
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.50