Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+1.7est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Chiefsedge mapBills
- +0.104EPA / play+0.210
- 46.6%Success rate49.2%
- +0.122EPA / dropback+0.338
- +0.075EPA / rush+0.031
- 10.0%Explosive rate13.6%
- +0.11CPOE+4.89
- 39.3%Third-down rate48.3%
- 52.6%Red-zone TD rate70.0%
- 2.28Points / drive3.19
- 1.1%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 12–11 since 1999
Meetings average 45.3 points. BUF are 14-9 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.54
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.67