Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-4.7est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Chiefsedge mapBills
- +0.118EPA / play+0.300
- 40.9%Success rate41.8%
- -0.014EPA / dropback+0.597
- +0.259EPA / rush-0.263
- 9.1%Explosive rate14.5%
- -11.92CPOE+8.14
- 56.3%Third-down rate33.3%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 2.57Points / drive3.07
- 1.5%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 12–11 since 1999
Meetings average 45.3 points. BUF are 14-9 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.90
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.68