Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+4.1est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Raidersedge mapBrowns
- +0.019EPA / play-0.040
- 43.1%Success rate42.7%
- +0.168EPA / dropback+0.039
- -0.252EPA / rush-0.175
- 7.6%Explosive rate7.8%
- -1.41CPOE-1.22
- 40.6%Third-down rate32.8%
- 55.6%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
- 2.49Points / drive1.65
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LV lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 38.6 points. CLE are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.32
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.10