Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-0.8est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Patriotsedge mapChargers
- +0.052EPA / play-0.209
- 45.0%Success rate36.9%
- +0.215EPA / dropback-0.191
- -0.200EPA / rush-0.235
- 8.4%Explosive rate6.6%
- +7.12CPOE-5.83
- 40.8%Third-down rate33.8%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate59.2%
- 2.06Points / drive1.22
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. LAC are 6-11 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.43
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.77