Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-9.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Giantsedge mapColts
- +0.363EPA / play-0.225
- 59.1%Success rate42.6%
- +0.667EPA / dropback-0.409
- +0.059EPA / rush+0.116
- 6.1%Explosive rate13.0%
- +13.38CPOE-5.06
- 90.0%Third-down rate30.0%
- 80.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 3.97Points / drive1.99
- 1.5%Turnover rate3.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–3 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 57.6 points. IND are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-12.23
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-9.77