Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+0.2est.
IND perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Giantsedge mapColts
- +0.027EPA / play-0.063
- 42.9%Success rate42.5%
- +0.118EPA / dropback-0.130
- -0.102EPA / rush+0.030
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.3%
- -2.00CPOE-4.20
- 44.9%Third-down rate40.1%
- 62.4%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 2.15Points / drive1.93
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–3 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 57.6 points. IND are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.25
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+0.21