Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+1.1est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Jetsedge mapDolphins
- +0.011EPA / play-0.049
- 44.6%Success rate39.8%
- +0.118EPA / dropback-0.005
- -0.148EPA / rush-0.107
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.5%
- +5.33CPOE-6.93
- 37.1%Third-down rate40.9%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
- 1.91Points / drive1.79
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 29–26 since 1999
MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. MIA are 24-28-3 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.12
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.10