Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+21.6est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Titansedge mapJaguars
- -0.141EPA / play+0.310
- 44.0%Success rate59.3%
- -0.152EPA / dropback+0.731
- -0.096EPA / rush-0.053
- 4.0%Explosive rate16.7%
- +0.39CPOE+22.32
- 33.3%Third-down rate55.6%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 0.99Points / drive3.76
- 0.0%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+19.39
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+21.61