Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+5.9est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Titansedge mapJaguars
- -0.124EPA / play+0.117
- 40.2%Success rate46.8%
- -0.123EPA / dropback+0.227
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.030
- 6.3%Explosive rate9.9%
- -0.37CPOE+3.79
- 34.7%Third-down rate49.4%
- 47.4%Red-zone TD rate71.6%
- 1.42Points / drive2.62
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.66
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.87