Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+0.7est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Commandersedge mapCardinals
- -0.005EPA / play-0.007
- 41.2%Success rate44.1%
- +0.061EPA / dropback+0.027
- -0.123EPA / rush-0.072
- 7.5%Explosive rate5.2%
- +2.73CPOE+0.66
- 32.2%Third-down rate39.0%
- 64.4%Red-zone TD rate52.3%
- 1.92Points / drive1.94
- 0.7%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 14–4 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. ARI are 8-10 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.60
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.70