Closing spread
—
Total
—
Model margin
+9.3est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
—
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Commandersedge mapCardinals
- +0.073EPA / play+0.139
- 43.5%Success rate48.6%
- +0.160EPA / dropback+0.270
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.044
- 4.3%Explosive rate5.6%
- -3.44CPOE+4.61
- 33.3%Third-down rate46.2%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate40.0%
- 1.99Points / drive2.35
- 0.0%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 14–4 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. ARI are 8-10 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+6.97
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+9.26