Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+1.9est.
NE perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Billsedge mapPatriots
- +0.210EPA / play+0.052
- 49.2%Success rate45.0%
- +0.338EPA / dropback+0.215
- +0.031EPA / rush-0.200
- 13.6%Explosive rate8.4%
- +4.89CPOE+7.12
- 48.3%Third-down rate40.8%
- 70.0%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 3.19Points / drive2.06
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. NE are 32-21-3 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.11
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.87