Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-5.7est.
NE perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Billsedge mapPatriots
- +0.300EPA / play-0.092
- 41.8%Success rate40.8%
- +0.597EPA / dropback+0.127
- -0.263EPA / rush-0.451
- 14.5%Explosive rate1.4%
- +8.14CPOE+5.97
- 33.3%Third-down rate31.3%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 3.07Points / drive1.11
- 0.0%Turnover rate4.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. NE are 31-21-3 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-7.71
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-5.73