2026 · Week 13

Scheduled

Panthers

Carolina

—@—

Vikings

Minnesota

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

—

Total

—

Model margin

+14.8est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

—

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapVikings
  • +0.130EPA / play+0.055
  • 47.1%Success rate37.7%
  • +0.242EPA / dropback+0.208
  • -0.106EPA / rush-0.125
  • 11.8%Explosive rate3.3%
  • +4.17CPOE-4.89
  • 44.4%Third-down rate57.1%
  • 100.0%Red-zone TD rate83.3%
  • 2.90Points / drive2.90
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 9–6 since 1999

MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. MIN are 8-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W4MIN @ CAR21–13MIN
2021 · W6MIN @ CAR34–28MIN
2020 · W12CAR @ MIN27–28MIN
2017 · W14MIN @ CAR24–31CAR
2016 · W3MIN @ CAR22–10MIN
2014 · W13CAR @ MIN13–31MIN
2013 · W6CAR @ MIN35–10CAR
2011 · W8MIN @ CAR24–21MIN

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+12.53
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+14.83