Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+1.0est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Bengalsedge mapBrowns
- +0.108EPA / play-0.040
- 48.7%Success rate42.7%
- +0.206EPA / dropback+0.039
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.175
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.8%
- +7.31CPOE-1.22
- 50.7%Third-down rate32.8%
- 64.8%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
- 2.52Points / drive1.65
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.18
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.04