Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-10.5est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Bengalsedge mapBrowns
- +0.001EPA / play-0.206
- 47.6%Success rate43.1%
- -0.030EPA / dropback-0.257
- +0.050EPA / rush-0.119
- 11.1%Explosive rate7.8%
- +6.35CPOE+10.32
- 57.1%Third-down rate12.5%
- 40.0%Red-zone TD rate33.3%
- 2.11Points / drive1.11
- 1.6%Turnover rate3.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-12.74
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-10.52