Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+1.3est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Lionsedge mapFalcons
- +0.144EPA / play-0.038
- 49.9%Success rate44.5%
- +0.309EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.108EPA / rush+0.001
- 10.3%Explosive rate9.0%
- +1.18CPOE-4.68
- 39.7%Third-down rate39.3%
- 70.4%Red-zone TD rate61.9%
- 2.92Points / drive1.93
- 0.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.6 points. ATL are 8-5 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.71
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.27