Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+1.1est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Lionsedge mapFalcons
- -0.027EPA / play-0.358
- 45.5%Success rate36.7%
- +0.012EPA / dropback-0.638
- -0.072EPA / rush-0.113
- 10.4%Explosive rate10.0%
- -2.91CPOE-10.42
- 38.5%Third-down rate16.7%
- 80.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 2.20Points / drive0.46
- 1.3%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.6 points. ATL are 8-5 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.85
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.13