Closing spread
—
Total
—
Model margin
+10.7est.
NO perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Packersedge mapSaints
- -0.181EPA / play+0.030
- 38.2%Success rate44.3%
- -0.059EPA / dropback+0.067
- -0.438EPA / rush-0.075
- 13.2%Explosive rate9.1%
- -9.65CPOE-1.21
- 25.0%Third-down rate47.1%
- 33.3%Red-zone TD rate80.0%
- 1.91Points / drive2.20
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 55.8 points. NO are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+8.80
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin+10.69