Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+0.6est.
NO perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Packersedge mapSaints
- +0.010EPA / play-0.031
- 40.0%Success rate41.9%
- +0.142EPA / dropback+0.041
- -0.266EPA / rush-0.169
- 8.5%Explosive rate6.1%
- -1.28CPOE+0.08
- 36.3%Third-down rate43.6%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate76.7%
- 1.96Points / drive2.19
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 55.8 points. NO are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.28
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin+0.62