Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+11.4est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Texansedge mapSteelers
- +0.071EPA / play-0.251
- 48.1%Success rate33.8%
- +0.098EPA / dropback-0.251
- +0.030EPA / rush-0.252
- 8.9%Explosive rate6.2%
- +3.16CPOE+1.23
- 43.8%Third-down rate25.0%
- 80.0%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 2.80Points / drive1.00
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–4 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. PIT are 5-4 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+9.04
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.16
- Expected margin+11.41