Closing spread
—
Total
—
Model margin
+3.0est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
—
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Texansedge mapSteelers
- +0.031EPA / play-0.029
- 43.4%Success rate42.3%
- +0.138EPA / dropback-0.063
- -0.167EPA / rush+0.043
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.1%
- +2.27CPOE-1.45
- 37.8%Third-down rate36.8%
- 60.4%Red-zone TD rate50.4%
- 2.19Points / drive1.79
- 0.7%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–4 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. PIT are 5-4 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.64
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.16
- Expected margin+3.01