Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
-1.9est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Dolphinsedge mapBroncos
- -0.242EPA / play-0.378
- 34.5%Success rate36.0%
- -0.183EPA / dropback-0.442
- -0.399EPA / rush-0.228
- 10.9%Explosive rate2.0%
- -8.85CPOE-7.78
- 20.0%Third-down rate16.7%
- 33.3%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 1.18Points / drive0.83
- 3.6%Turnover rate4.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 7–4 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. DEN are 2-9 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.27
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.16
- Expected margin-1.89