Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+5.0est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Dolphinsedge mapBroncos
- -0.049EPA / play-0.040
- 39.8%Success rate37.9%
- -0.005EPA / dropback-0.004
- -0.107EPA / rush-0.093
- 8.5%Explosive rate6.4%
- -6.93CPOE-2.61
- 40.9%Third-down rate31.4%
- 58.0%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
- 1.79Points / drive1.75
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 7–4 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. DEN are 2-9 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.62
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.16
- Expected margin+5.00