Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+2.5est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Eaglesedge mapCardinals
- -0.096EPA / play-0.007
- 37.7%Success rate44.1%
- -0.069EPA / dropback+0.027
- -0.145EPA / rush-0.072
- 4.6%Explosive rate5.2%
- -2.40CPOE+0.66
- 36.2%Third-down rate39.0%
- 73.9%Red-zone TD rate52.3%
- 1.70Points / drive1.94
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 11–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.9 points. ARI are 11-8 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.57
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.55