Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-6.1est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
49ersedge mapGiants
- +0.190EPA / play+0.363
- 56.9%Success rate59.1%
- +0.227EPA / dropback+0.667
- +0.142EPA / rush+0.059
- 7.7%Explosive rate6.1%
- +0.77CPOE+13.38
- 58.3%Third-down rate90.0%
- 75.0%Red-zone TD rate80.0%
- 2.98Points / drive3.97
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 8–7 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. NYG are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-8.31
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-6.09