Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+1.6est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
49ersedge mapGiants
- +0.153EPA / play+0.027
- 52.5%Success rate42.9%
- +0.265EPA / dropback+0.118
- -0.001EPA / rush-0.102
- 10.8%Explosive rate7.8%
- +4.63CPOE-2.00
- 51.0%Third-down rate44.9%
- 88.6%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
- 2.81Points / drive2.15
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 8–7 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. NYG are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.67
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.55