Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+1.7est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Commandersedge mapTitans
- -0.008EPA / play-0.124
- 41.3%Success rate40.2%
- +0.069EPA / dropback-0.123
- -0.148EPA / rush-0.126
- 6.8%Explosive rate6.3%
- +3.27CPOE-0.37
- 31.3%Third-down rate34.7%
- 64.1%Red-zone TD rate47.4%
- 1.86Points / drive1.42
- 0.5%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. TEN are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.53
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.69