Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+1.3est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Broncosedge mapJets
- -0.040EPA / play+0.011
- 37.9%Success rate44.6%
- -0.004EPA / dropback+0.118
- -0.093EPA / rush-0.148
- 6.4%Explosive rate9.3%
- -2.61CPOE+5.33
- 31.4%Third-down rate37.1%
- 71.1%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 1.75Points / drive1.91
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 10–6 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.7 points. NYJ are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.50
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.28