Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+16.9est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Broncosedge mapJets
- -0.378EPA / play+0.126
- 36.0%Success rate48.4%
- -0.442EPA / dropback+0.338
- -0.228EPA / rush-0.038
- 2.0%Explosive rate10.9%
- -7.78CPOE+12.84
- 16.7%Third-down rate18.2%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 0.83Points / drive2.08
- 4.0%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 10–6 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.7 points. NYJ are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+14.09
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+16.87