Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+1.1est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Chiefsedge mapBengals
- +0.113EPA / play+0.118
- 47.1%Success rate50.4%
- +0.144EPA / dropback+0.235
- +0.065EPA / rush-0.133
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.1%
- +1.39CPOE+9.08
- 39.9%Third-down rate53.9%
- 56.1%Red-zone TD rate66.5%
- 2.26Points / drive2.60
- 0.9%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 9–6 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. CIN are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.88
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.10