Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-8.9est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Chiefsedge mapBengals
- +0.118EPA / play+0.001
- 40.9%Success rate47.6%
- -0.014EPA / dropback-0.030
- +0.259EPA / rush+0.050
- 9.1%Explosive rate11.1%
- -11.92CPOE+6.35
- 56.3%Third-down rate57.1%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate40.0%
- 2.57Points / drive2.11
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 9–6 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. CIN are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-10.91
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-8.94