Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+1.7est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Chiefsedge mapBengals
- +0.104EPA / play+0.108
- 46.6%Success rate48.7%
- +0.122EPA / dropback+0.206
- +0.075EPA / rush-0.087
- 10.0%Explosive rate7.8%
- +0.11CPOE+7.31
- 39.3%Third-down rate50.7%
- 52.6%Red-zone TD rate64.8%
- 2.28Points / drive2.52
- 1.1%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 9–6 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. CIN are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.27
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.71