Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+3.1est.
LV perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Chargersedge mapRaiders
- -0.209EPA / play+0.019
- 36.9%Success rate43.1%
- -0.191EPA / dropback+0.168
- -0.235EPA / rush-0.252
- 6.6%Explosive rate7.6%
- -5.83CPOE-1.41
- 33.8%Third-down rate40.6%
- 59.2%Red-zone TD rate55.6%
- 1.22Points / drive2.49
- 3.5%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 33–22 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. LV are 23-31-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.31
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.09