Closing spread
—
Total
—
Model margin
+13.6est.
LV perspective
Push chance
—
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Chargersedge mapRaiders
- -0.167EPA / play-0.029
- 40.0%Success rate43.1%
- -0.087EPA / dropback+0.027
- -0.360EPA / rush-0.083
- 5.5%Explosive rate7.7%
- -6.21CPOE+0.71
- 25.0%Third-down rate41.7%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate75.0%
- 1.39Points / drive2.44
- 3.6%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 33–21 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. LV are 22-31-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+10.77
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+13.55