Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+21.7est.
SF perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Ramsedge map49ers
- -0.226EPA / play+0.190
- 43.3%Success rate56.9%
- -0.270EPA / dropback+0.227
- -0.171EPA / rush+0.142
- 6.7%Explosive rate7.7%
- -4.74CPOE+0.77
- 22.2%Third-down rate58.3%
- 33.3%Red-zone TD rate75.0%
- 0.69Points / drive2.98
- 3.3%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. SF are 31-23-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+19.69
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+21.67