Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+2.0est.
SF perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Ramsedge map49ers
- +0.059EPA / play+0.153
- 49.0%Success rate52.5%
- +0.117EPA / dropback+0.265
- -0.042EPA / rush-0.001
- 8.1%Explosive rate10.8%
- +1.33CPOE+4.63
- 46.2%Third-down rate51.0%
- 65.6%Red-zone TD rate88.6%
- 2.15Points / drive2.81
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. SF are 31-23-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.04
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.02