Closing spread
—
Total
—
Model margin
-7.0est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
—
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Saintsedge mapPanthers
- +0.030EPA / play+0.130
- 44.3%Success rate47.1%
- +0.067EPA / dropback+0.242
- -0.075EPA / rush-0.106
- 9.1%Explosive rate11.8%
- -1.21CPOE+4.17
- 47.1%Third-down rate44.4%
- 80.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 2.20Points / drive2.90
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-9.22
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-7.00