Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+12.0est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Steelersedge mapJaguars
- -0.251EPA / play+0.310
- 33.8%Success rate59.3%
- -0.251EPA / dropback+0.731
- -0.252EPA / rush-0.053
- 6.2%Explosive rate16.7%
- +1.23CPOE+22.32
- 25.0%Third-down rate55.6%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 1.00Points / drive3.76
- 1.5%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 11–9 since 1999
Meetings average 37.9 points. JAX are 13-6-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+9.77
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+11.99