Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+3.5est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Steelersedge mapJaguars
- -0.029EPA / play+0.117
- 42.3%Success rate46.8%
- -0.063EPA / dropback+0.227
- +0.043EPA / rush-0.030
- 8.1%Explosive rate9.9%
- -1.45CPOE+3.79
- 36.8%Third-down rate49.4%
- 50.4%Red-zone TD rate71.6%
- 1.79Points / drive2.62
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 11–9 since 1999
Meetings average 37.9 points. JAX are 13-6-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.25
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.47