Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+15.9est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Buccaneersedge mapRavens
- -0.081EPA / play+0.209
- 51.8%Success rate46.9%
- -0.168EPA / dropback+0.316
- +0.118EPA / rush+0.101
- 5.4%Explosive rate10.9%
- +14.02CPOE+4.80
- 50.0%Third-down rate37.5%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate83.3%
- 1.44Points / drive3.13
- 7.1%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 6–2 since 1999
BAL have won 6 straight. Meetings average 41.1 points. BAL are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+13.14
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+15.92