Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+3.3est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Buccaneersedge mapRavens
- -0.081EPA / play+0.071
- 40.9%Success rate46.2%
- -0.130EPA / dropback+0.186
- -0.011EPA / rush-0.080
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.2%
- -2.76CPOE+4.76
- 40.9%Third-down rate41.4%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 1.86Points / drive2.06
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 6–2 since 1999
BAL have won 6 straight. Meetings average 41.1 points. BAL are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.51
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.29