Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+5.3est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Falconsedge mapCommanders
- -0.358EPA / play+0.073
- 36.7%Success rate43.5%
- -0.638EPA / dropback+0.160
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.046
- 10.0%Explosive rate4.3%
- -10.42CPOE-3.44
- 16.7%Third-down rate33.3%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 0.46Points / drive1.99
- 3.3%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.3 points. WAS are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.04
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.26