Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+1.3est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Falconsedge mapCommanders
- -0.038EPA / play-0.008
- 44.5%Success rate41.3%
- -0.070EPA / dropback+0.069
- +0.001EPA / rush-0.148
- 9.0%Explosive rate6.8%
- -4.68CPOE+3.27
- 39.3%Third-down rate31.3%
- 61.9%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
- 1.93Points / drive1.86
- 2.3%Turnover rate0.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.3 points. WAS are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.97
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.25