Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+2.4est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Ravensedge mapSteelers
- +0.071EPA / play-0.029
- 46.2%Success rate42.3%
- +0.186EPA / dropback-0.063
- -0.080EPA / rush+0.043
- 9.2%Explosive rate8.1%
- +4.76CPOE-1.45
- 41.4%Third-down rate36.8%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate50.4%
- 2.06Points / drive1.79
- 1.1%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.21
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.35