Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-6.2est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Ravensedge mapSteelers
- +0.209EPA / play-0.251
- 46.9%Success rate33.8%
- +0.316EPA / dropback-0.251
- +0.101EPA / rush-0.252
- 10.9%Explosive rate6.2%
- +4.80CPOE+1.23
- 37.5%Third-down rate25.0%
- 83.3%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 3.13Points / drive1.00
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-8.36
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-6.22