Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+1.1est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Bengalsedge mapPanthers
- +0.118EPA / play+0.019
- 50.4%Success rate41.9%
- +0.235EPA / dropback+0.072
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.084
- 8.1%Explosive rate8.5%
- +9.08CPOE-0.58
- 53.9%Third-down rate39.3%
- 66.5%Red-zone TD rate67.3%
- 2.60Points / drive2.15
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 4–3–1 since 1999
CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 52.3 points. CAR are 4-3-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.17
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.05