Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-6.4est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Bengalsedge mapPanthers
- +0.001EPA / play+0.130
- 47.6%Success rate47.1%
- -0.030EPA / dropback+0.242
- +0.050EPA / rush-0.106
- 11.1%Explosive rate11.8%
- +6.35CPOE+4.17
- 57.1%Third-down rate44.4%
- 40.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 2.11Points / drive2.90
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 4–3–1 since 1999
CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 52.3 points. CAR are 4-3-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-8.59
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-6.37