Closing spread
—
Total
—
Model margin
+0.5est.
LV perspective
Push chance
—
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Broncosedge mapRaiders
- -0.040EPA / play+0.019
- 37.9%Success rate43.1%
- -0.004EPA / dropback+0.168
- -0.093EPA / rush-0.252
- 6.4%Explosive rate7.6%
- -2.61CPOE-1.41
- 31.4%Third-down rate40.6%
- 71.1%Red-zone TD rate55.6%
- 1.75Points / drive2.49
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. LV are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.69
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.53