Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+15.9est.
LV perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Broncosedge mapRaiders
- -0.378EPA / play-0.029
- 36.0%Success rate43.1%
- -0.442EPA / dropback+0.027
- -0.228EPA / rush-0.083
- 2.0%Explosive rate7.7%
- -7.78CPOE+0.71
- 16.7%Third-down rate41.7%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate75.0%
- 0.83Points / drive2.44
- 4.0%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. LV are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+13.69
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+15.91