Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+3.8est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Lionsedge mapVikings
- +0.144EPA / play-0.099
- 49.9%Success rate36.7%
- +0.309EPA / dropback-0.029
- -0.108EPA / rush-0.195
- 10.3%Explosive rate7.6%
- +1.18CPOE+0.39
- 39.7%Third-down rate38.6%
- 70.4%Red-zone TD rate46.3%
- 2.92Points / drive1.65
- 0.7%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. MIN are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.34
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+3.80