Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+3.6est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Coltsedge mapTitans
- -0.111EPA / play-0.083
- 42.1%Success rate41.6%
- -0.187EPA / dropback-0.067
- -0.002EPA / rush-0.110
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.0%
- -3.59CPOE-0.46
- 38.6%Third-down rate35.8%
- 59.8%Red-zone TD rate52.6%
- 1.71Points / drive1.55
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–16 since 1999
Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 21-29 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.35
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.57