Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+5.1est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Coltsedge mapTitans
- -0.225EPA / play-0.141
- 42.6%Success rate44.0%
- -0.409EPA / dropback-0.152
- +0.116EPA / rush-0.096
- 13.0%Explosive rate4.0%
- -5.06CPOE+0.39
- 30.0%Third-down rate33.3%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 1.99Points / drive0.99
- 3.7%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 20-29 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.90
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.12