Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-16.5est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Jaguarsedge mapTexans
- +0.310EPA / play+0.071
- 59.3%Success rate48.1%
- +0.731EPA / dropback+0.098
- -0.053EPA / rush+0.030
- 16.7%Explosive rate8.9%
- +22.32CPOE+3.16
- 55.6%Third-down rate43.8%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate80.0%
- 3.76Points / drive2.80
- 0.0%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 32–16 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. HOU are 27-20-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-18.80
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-16.50