Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-1.3est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Jaguarsedge mapTexans
- +0.124EPA / play+0.031
- 46.5%Success rate43.4%
- +0.228EPA / dropback+0.138
- -0.005EPA / rush-0.167
- 10.3%Explosive rate8.4%
- +3.75CPOE+2.27
- 49.5%Third-down rate37.8%
- 75.2%Red-zone TD rate60.4%
- 2.66Points / drive2.19
- 1.2%Turnover rate0.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 33–16 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. HOU are 28-20-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.59
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-1.29