Closing spread
—
Total
—
Model margin
+1.2est.
GB perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Dolphinsedge mapPackers
- -0.242EPA / play-0.181
- 34.5%Success rate38.2%
- -0.183EPA / dropback-0.059
- -0.399EPA / rush-0.438
- 10.9%Explosive rate13.2%
- -8.85CPOE-9.65
- 20.0%Third-down rate25.0%
- 33.3%Red-zone TD rate33.3%
- 1.18Points / drive1.91
- 3.6%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 6–2 since 1999
GB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. GB are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.05
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.17