Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+4.8est.
GB perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Dolphinsedge mapPackers
- -0.049EPA / play+0.010
- 39.8%Success rate40.0%
- -0.005EPA / dropback+0.142
- -0.107EPA / rush-0.266
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.5%
- -6.93CPOE-1.28
- 40.9%Third-down rate36.3%
- 58.0%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 1.79Points / drive1.96
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 6–2 since 1999
GB have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. GB are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.62
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.84