Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+16.6est.
KC perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Patriotsedge mapChiefs
- -0.092EPA / play+0.118
- 40.8%Success rate40.9%
- +0.127EPA / dropback-0.014
- -0.451EPA / rush+0.259
- 1.4%Explosive rate9.1%
- +5.97CPOE-11.92
- 31.3%Third-down rate56.3%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 1.11Points / drive2.57
- 4.2%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 8–7 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 50.4 points. KC are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+14.61
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+16.59