Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+2.8est.
KC perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Patriotsedge mapChiefs
- +0.057EPA / play+0.113
- 45.5%Success rate47.1%
- +0.214EPA / dropback+0.144
- -0.169EPA / rush+0.065
- 8.7%Explosive rate9.6%
- +7.72CPOE+1.39
- 41.4%Third-down rate39.9%
- 62.7%Red-zone TD rate56.1%
- 2.07Points / drive2.26
- 3.0%Turnover rate0.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 8–7 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 50.4 points. KC are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.79
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.77